Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
36 Cincinnati 61.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +11.0      +3.2 89 +7.8 5 62.0 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Houston 57.9%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +11.0      +5.8 46 +5.2 31 69.4 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 Central Florida 46.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +9.0      +1.8 116 +7.2 9 62.4 328 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 SMU 38.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +8.9      +4.7 62 +4.2 54 61.2 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Temple 29.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 7 +7.2      +4.1 69 +3.1 78 67.7 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Wichita St. 24.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +6.1      +4.1 70 +2.0 111 70.5 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 Connecticut 15.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +5.0      +3.1 91 +1.9 116 66.7 236 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Tulsa 14.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +4.6      +2.9 99 +1.7 121 67.8 210 0.0 1 0.0 1
101 Memphis 15.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 9 +4.2      +3.5 83 +0.8 144 65.3 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
195 Tulane 1.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.9      -0.7 187 -1.2 213 71.5 108 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 South Florida 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 19 4 - 14 -5.1      -3.1 261 -2.0 247 62.4 330 0.0 1 0.0 1
290 East Carolina 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 3 - 15 -7.0      -4.5 291 -2.5 262 71.0 124 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Cincinnati 3.7 24.8 17.4 14.0 11.0 9.9 7.9 5.8 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1
Houston 3.3 29.5 18.2 13.9 10.8 8.9 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Central Florida 4.4 16.1 14.9 13.4 12.6 10.8 9.3 7.9 6.7 4.2 2.8 1.0 0.3
SMU 4.3 16.7 14.8 13.3 12.2 10.9 9.5 8.4 6.0 4.5 2.2 1.2 0.3
Temple 4.8 12.6 12.9 12.8 12.1 11.8 9.7 8.9 7.3 5.9 3.7 1.8 0.5
Wichita St. 5.3 9.6 10.8 11.5 11.6 10.7 11.0 10.6 9.0 7.3 4.9 2.4 0.7
Connecticut 6.1 5.9 7.5 8.8 9.4 10.6 11.7 11.8 12.1 10.4 7.2 3.4 1.3
Tulsa 6.2 5.0 6.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 11.7 12.3 12.5 10.2 7.9 4.3 1.3
Memphis 6.3 5.0 6.8 8.3 9.2 10.2 11.3 11.3 11.6 11.0 8.6 4.9 1.7
Tulane 8.9 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.1 7.8 11.3 15.6 20.2 17.4 10.6
South Florida 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.8 6.4 10.6 19.0 28.5 26.5
East Carolina 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.6 8.1 15.9 26.2 39.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Cincinnati 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.3 9.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 12.0 9.3 6.8 3.6 1.3
Houston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.4 4.2 6.2 8.7 11.1 12.4 13.1 12.8 11.7 7.9 4.8 1.6
Central Florida 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.6 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.1 12.3 13.5 11.4 9.7 6.6 3.9 1.8 0.5
SMU 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.7 9.5 11.4 12.1 12.8 11.5 9.6 6.9 4.5 1.9 0.6
Temple 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.5 6.4 8.3 10.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 10.7 7.5 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.3
Wichita St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.6 7.8 10.4 11.0 11.9 11.5 11.3 9.1 6.2 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.2
Connecticut 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.0 10.6 11.9 12.4 11.7 10.7 8.3 6.2 4.6 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
Tulsa 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.5 6.4 8.6 10.5 12.3 12.5 11.8 9.8 8.5 5.5 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1
Memphis 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.5 6.7 8.4 10.3 11.9 11.8 11.4 9.9 7.9 6.1 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
Tulane 6 - 12 0.9 3.7 6.1 9.9 12.6 14.3 13.0 11.6 9.2 6.9 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 4 - 14 3.6 9.5 14.6 16.9 15.8 13.5 9.9 6.4 4.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 3 - 15 7.5 14.6 17.4 17.0 14.6 10.6 7.8 4.6 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Cincinnati 24.8% 16.2 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
Houston 29.5% 20.3 7.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
Central Florida 16.1% 10.2 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
SMU 16.7% 10.3 4.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
Temple 12.6% 7.4 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 9.6% 5.6 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Connecticut 5.9% 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 5.0% 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Memphis 5.0% 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Tulane 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Cincinnati 61.2% 20.3% 40.9% 10   2.3 2.8 4.2 5.0 4.8 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.2 3.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 38.8 51.3%
Houston 57.9% 20.5% 37.4% 11   1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.1 5.5 5.6 6.4 6.9 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 42.1 47.0%
Central Florida 46.6% 13.2% 33.4% 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.2 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 53.4 38.5%
SMU 38.2% 13.5% 24.7% 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.7 7.0 3.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 61.8 28.6%
Temple 29.9% 9.0% 21.0% 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.5 4.1 5.5 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 70.1 23.0%
Wichita St. 24.0% 7.0% 17.0% 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.5 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 76.0 18.3%
Connecticut 15.9% 5.3% 10.6% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 84.1 11.2%
Tulsa 14.2% 5.2% 9.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.1 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 85.8 9.5%
Memphis 15.4% 4.6% 10.8% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 84.6 11.4%
Tulane 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 98.5 0.5%
South Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.1%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Cincinnati 61.2% 6.1% 58.1% 34.5% 15.2% 6.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Houston 57.9% 5.2% 55.2% 33.2% 15.3% 6.7% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Central Florida 46.6% 6.1% 43.5% 22.5% 8.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
SMU 38.2% 6.1% 35.2% 18.2% 7.0% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Temple 29.9% 5.5% 27.3% 13.6% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 24.0% 4.7% 21.5% 10.1% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Connecticut 15.9% 3.3% 14.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulsa 14.2% 2.8% 12.8% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 15.4% 3.1% 13.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulane 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.1 6.2 25.1 36.0 23.8 7.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.8 0.0 8.9 30.4 35.9 19.1 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 85.4% 1.5 14.6 38.3 33.1 12.2 1.8 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 49.3% 0.6 50.7 39.8 8.6 0.9 0.1
Elite Eight 22.8% 0.2 77.2 21.3 1.5 0.1
Final Four 9.7% 0.1 90.3 9.4 0.2
Final Game 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Champion 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3